联合国气候报告反复强调，要把全球升温幅度控制在1.5摄氏度以内。此前《巴黎协定》提出的目标是，要把升幅控制在2摄氏度以内，同时尽力不超过1.5摄氏度。全球升温1.5度和2度的区别到底有多大？
A is seen on the dry of the dam, which is part of the , a in , near Sao Paulo, , 8, 2021. /
Over and over at the UN in , world have the need to limit to 1.5 .
在格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候变化大会上，世界各国领导人反复强调，必须把全球变暖幅度控制在1.5摄氏度以内。
The 2015 Paris to limit the rise to well below 2°C above pre- , and to aim for 1.5°C.
2015年达成的《巴黎协定》中，各国政府承诺将全球平均温度控制在比前工业化水平升温2摄氏度以内，并努力达到升温1.5摄氏度以内的目标。
have said the 1.5°C risks far more on , and .
科学家指出，升温幅度超过1.5摄氏度意味着人类、野生动植物和生态系统都可能遭受气候变化带来的更严重后果。
it CO2 by 2030 from 2010 and them to net-zero by 2050.
防止全球升温超过1.5摄氏度要求我们在2030年前将全球碳排放量减少为2010年的一半，并在2050年前实现净零排放。
But what is the 1.5°C and 2°C of ?
但是全球升温1.5摄氏度和升温2摄氏度有什么不同呢？
, the world has to 1.1°C above pre- . Each of the last four was than any since 1850.
当前，全球温度已经比前工业化水平高出约1.1摄氏度。过去四个十年的气温比1850年以来的任何一个十年都更高。
‘We never had such a in only a few ‘, said Jacob at the . ‘Half a means much more , and it can be more often, more , or in .’
德国气候服务中心的气候科学家丹妮拉·雅各布说：“仅仅数十年就升温这么多，这样的全球变暖是从未发生过的。升温0.5度意味着更极端的天气会更频繁地出现，极端天气会更恶劣或持续更长时间。”
Just this year, rains , of . more died when in the hit highs. saw , the and , and hit parts of .
就在今年，欧洲西部暴雨引发的洪水令数百人丧生。太平洋西北地区的破纪录高温天气也导致数百人死亡。格陵兰岛冰川大规模融化。地中海地区和西伯利亚野火肆虐。巴西部分地区遭遇了史上罕见的旱灾。
by the flood are in , , July 29, 2021. / Kranz
‘ is every the globe,’ said at the of East .
东英吉利亚大学的气候科学家瑞秋·沃伦说：“气候变化已经影响到了人类居住的每个角落。”
More to 1.5°C and will such . For , would both more and more .
全球升温超过1.5摄氏度将会加剧气候变化的影响。比如，高温将会更频繁地来袭，程度也会更严重。
A can also hold more , in more that flood risks. It also , to more .
气温升高还会让大气变得更湿润，引发更多强降雨，从而增加洪水风险。蒸发量增加还会导致更严重的干旱。
‘At 1.5°C, there’s a good we can most of the and west ice sheet from ,’ said Mann at State .
宾夕法尼亚州立大学的气候科学家迈克尔·曼恩说：“如果升温幅度在1.5摄氏度以内，我们还有可能防止格陵兰岛和南极西部的大部分冰盖融化崩塌。”
That would help limit sea level rise to a few feet by the end of the – still a big that would erode and some small and .
这有助于在本世纪末将海平面上升水平控制在几英尺以内，尽管海平面上升几英尺仍然会造成巨变，包括侵蚀海岸线、淹没一些小岛国和沿海城市。
But blow past 2°C and the ice could , Mann said, with sea up to 10 – how that could is .
曼恩说，但是如果升温幅度超过2摄氏度，冰盖就会瓦解，海平面会上升10米之多。不过，不确定这一天来得会有多快。
of 1.5°C would at least 70% of coral reefs, but at 2°C more than 99% would be lost. That would fish and that rely on reefs for their food and .
全球升温1.5摄氏度会摧毁至少70%的珊瑚礁，但是如果升温2摄氏度，超过99%的珊瑚礁都会死亡。这对于依赖珊瑚觅食和栖息的鱼群是一个毁灭性打击。
of 2°C, 1.5°C, would also the on food .
全球升温由1.5摄氏度到2摄氏度还会加大对粮食生产的影响。
‘If you have crop in a of the of the world at the same time, then you could see food price and and wide of the world,’ said Simon Lewis at .
伦敦大学学院的气候科学家西蒙·路易斯说：“如果世界上的几个粮食主产地同时发生农作物歉收，大范围的食品价格飞涨和饥荒将会席卷全球。”
A world could see the that carry such as and fever a wider range. But 2°C would also see a share of and lose most of their range, with 1.5°C, and the risk of fires – risk to .
全球变暖会导致携带疟疾和登革热病毒的蚊虫大范围滋生。相比升温1.5摄氏度，升温2摄氏度会让更多昆虫和动物失去大部分栖息地，还会增加森林火灾风险，进而危及野生动植物的生存。
rise as a burns in the of , on the of Evia, , 9, 2021. /
As the world heats up, the risk that the will reach ‘ ‘, where Earth’s cross a that or . when those would be is .
随着全球变暖，地球达到“临界点”的风险也会增加。一旦到达这个临界点，就会触发地球系统不可逆转的连锁效应。但是具体何时到达临界点还不确定。
, , and of the , for , could see the , CO2 into the than it. Or could cause long- to , vast of .
举例来说，干旱、降雨减少以及对亚马逊雨林持续性的砍伐，将会导致雨林系统崩溃，结果就是将二氧化碳释放到空气中而不是将二氧化碳储存起来。北极永久冻土的融化会导致冰封多年的生物遗骸腐烂，从而产生大量的二氧化碳。
of 2.7°C would ‘ heat’ for parts of the year areas of the and . would be , food would drop, and would most urban ‘s to cope, said.
科学家指出，全球升温2.7摄氏度会导致热带和亚热带地区在一年中的部分季节“因为炎热而无法居住”。生物多样性会遭到极大破坏，粮食安全将受到冲击，极端天气将会超出多数城市基建的应对能力。
‘If we can keep below 3°C we our as a , but at 2.7°C we would great ,’ said Mann.
曼恩说：“如果我们能把全球升温控制在3摄氏度以内，人类文明可能还能够适应气候变化的影响，但是升温幅度达到2.7摄氏度后，我们的日子就会很难过。”
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